If Trump were to return to the White House, the U.K. and other European NATO members could be faced with a hard choice, writes POLITICO.

“Since surviving an assassination attempt, former U.S. President Donald Trump has secured his nomination as the Republican Party’s presidential candidate. Meanwhile, latest polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris - the favorite to become the Democratic nominee - is neck and neck with Trump.

For U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, however, there’s little choice but to stay close to the U.S. president, whoever they turn out to be - hence the charm offensive he launched in Trump’s direction months ago.

The tricky thing is Starmer’s a strong backer of Ukraine. Sitting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy directly to his right at last week’s European Political Community summit hosted by the U.K., the prime minister pledged support to Kyiv “for as long as it takes”.

But Trump allies like Elbridge Colby, who is tipped as a possible national security advisor to Trump, see China as the main threat to U.S. security — not Russia — and they view Ukraine as diverting resources needed to confront China and defend Taiwan.

Trump has previously boasted he could end the Ukraine war in 24 hours - though he did qualify this after a recent phone call with Zelenskyy, saying that “both sides will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the violence and paves a path forward to prosperity”.

But a big concern is that Trump’s idea of a peace settlement could simply mean Russia keeping the areas of Ukraine it currently holds. He recently appointed Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate, a man who has said he doesn’t really care what happens to Ukraine. Similarly, Richard Grenell - a possible secretary of state under Trump - has advocated a peace deal for Ukraine that would preserve Ukrainian territory but allow for “autonomous zones.” A term that may well be code for Ukraine just accepting its losses and moving on.

Given all this, if Trump were to return to the White House, the U.K. and other European NATO members could be faced with a hard choice: Either accept a forced settlement favoring Russia, or back Zelenskyy in rejecting such a deal and continuing to resist Russian aggression. In the latter scenario, Trump may even discourage dissent by withdrawing U.S. defense guarantees from allies he regarded as “escalating” the war by supplying arms to Ukraine.

A crisis along these lines would divide and weaken NATO - to the point where some allies might back down from a confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and withdraw support from Ukraine”, - reads the article.